Netflix’s Epic Forecast Fail – WSJ

A scene from Netflix’s ‘The Crown’.


Robert Viglasky/Associated Press

When it comes to the dog days of summer, the internal forecasters at


have a bad habit of getting a bit too heated.

The video-streaming company missed its own projections for paid-subscriber growth in the second quarter by a wide margin. That caused the stock to fall 11% Thursday morning. The company blamed its “content slate” for the quarter, though it also noted that the miss was slightly higher in regions that received price increases.

Whatever the reason, Netflix investors could be forgiven for a sense of déjà vu. Todd Juenger of Bernstein notes that Netflix has missed its June quarter subscriber forecast in three of the past four years. The last big one happened in 2016, when the company missed its target by 33%, causing the richly valued stock to drop 13%, according to FactSet. But he added that Netflix consistently beats its own goals in the third and fourth quarters, which may help investors chill.

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